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Worldwide Healthcare Trust PLC Annual Report for the year ended 31 March 2025
STRATEGIC REPORT
GOVERNANCE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FURTHER INFORMATION
PORTFOLIO MANAGER’S REVIEW CONTINUED
MAJOR DETRACTORS TO PERFORMANCE
Merck is a U.S. based, global large cap pharmaceutical
company that is well regarded as a pioneer in
immuno-oncology and vaccine development. Company
sales approached U.S.$65 billion in 2024 with 60% of
revenues coming from these two areas. Sales in China
comprise an important portion of the company’s growth
strategy. However, an unexpected slowdown in the sales of
Gardasil, a cancer-preventing vaccine, throughout the year
in China pressured the stock. The first sign of a slowdown
was in the second quarter report in which the company
maintained the issue was acute and maintained long-term
guidance for Gardasil. However, the issue recurred in the
third quarter report as well, yet the company continued to
maintain its guidance. Nevertheless, we exited the stock at
that time. The share price continued to drop in the fourth
quarter as Gardasil sales in China once again disappointed
and the company finally capitulated and withdrew
guidance, and the stock reached a three-year low.
Evolent Health is a healthcare services company
specialising in value-based care, particularly in specialty
areas like oncology, cardiology, and musculoskeletal care.
Evolent Health’s business centres around contracts with
health plans, notably Humana and Molina, to assist in
managing the oncology patient risk pools of those plans.
At the beginning of the year, Evolent priced its oncology
plans with an expectation for a normalised year of both
disease prevalence and acuity levels. However, as the year
progressed an unforeseen rise in both oncology prevalence
and acuity, as well as healthcare utilisation more generally,
began to unfold, leading to downward revisions to
estimates and forward expectations. Compounding these
issues, Evolent was not fully aware of the extent to which
these trends had taken place until the third quarter of
the year due to a six-month catch-up in claims data. This
inhibited the company’s ability to renegotiate its rates with
the company’s clients. After the share price fell post the
third quarter announcement in November 2024, we exited
the stock.
One of the most innovative new drugs over the past
20years is Leqembi (lecanemab), an antibody developed
and commercialised by Eisai and partnered with U.S.
biotech giant, Biogen, for the treatment of mild to moderate
Alzheimer’s disease. The positive pivotal trial announced in
September 2022, CLARITY AD, was a landmark study that
surprised both the clinical and investment communities.
The subsequent filing with the FDA, a positive Advisory
Committee meeting, an accelerated approval (January
2023) and a full approval (July 2023) set the stage for a
much-anticipated launch. However, some 18 months later,
the uptake for Leqembi remained modest and was even
denied a first-pass approval in Europe over safety concerns.
Despite positive expert opinion on the clinical importance
of Leqembi for Alzheimer’s patients and their families and
caregivers, obstacles for uptake remain, including lack of a
blood-based diagnostic, infusion centre availability, burden
of dose frequency, and a launch primarily presided over by
an inexperienced Tokyo-based pharmaceutical company.
All of which pressured the share price of Biogen in the
reported period. As the calendar turned from 2024 to 2025
and uptake for Leqembi still did not inflect and we exited
thestock.
Pharmaceutical brand names rarely become part of
popular culture, but Novo Nordisk has recently succeeded
with two, Ozempic and Wegovy, joining the ranks such
as Viagra and Lipitor. With the immense popularity and
insatiable demand for these drugs, the share price enjoyed
similar popularity, rising over 30% since the beginning
of 2024 and peaking above 1,000 Danish Kroner in late
June 2024. However, a series of idiosyncratic, negative
events conspired to re-rate the stock lower. First, a solid
but less-than-perfect second quarter report in August
2024 exacerbated a macro sell-off that had commenced
in late July 2024. Second, in late September 2024, when
the company announced Phase II data for monlunabant, a
novel CB1 inverse agonist, the company’s lead oral asset
in the obesity space. The positive trial was sufficient for
Novo Nordisk to advance the agent into the next stage
of clinical trials, but the reported efficacy and safety data
disappointed investors. Third, the stock tumbled again
after the third quarter report after the company CFO talked
down consensus estimates for 2025. Fourth, the stock fell
over 20% in late December after the company announced
their next generation weight loss medication, CagriSema,
did not reach the expected -25% threshold of weight loss
in a pivotal trial. Finally, whilst demand for Wegovy proved
to be largely insatiable since its approval and launch
in the U.S. in 2021, the absence of a material inflection
in prescriptions at the start of the calendar year 2025
prompted us to exit the stock.
The emerging biotech company, Apellis Pharmaceuticals
has displayed all of the hallmarks of investing in a
speculative Biotechnology company, with high rewards
and high risks. The company developed Syfovre
(pegcetacoplan injection), a first-in-class treatment